HURDLES ON THE TRACK: INDIA AND HIGH SPEED RAIL (PART 3)

THE DYNAMICS OF HIGH SPEED RAIL - ANALYSING  VIABILITY IN THE INDIAN SETUP

The case for high speed rail is dependent on a number of market factors and the development of high speed rail appears to be correlated with certain factors.

The case for high speed rail is strongest in countries where there is a large market for travel over distances of around 200-800 km*, and particularly in the range 300-1000 km. India has around a million long distance train travellers every day. Seen from this perspective, India has a very large High Speed Rail Market waiting to be tapped.

A high speed line can offer very high capacity. For sufficient travel demand for HSR capacity to be utilised effectively, there must be very large cities approximately the right distances apart.  There must also be a number of significant population centres that can be accessed by the same high speed route. India has this combination in the right proportion. Say a train going from Delhi to Kolkata. The HSR can run through the following route; Delhi-Agra-Kanpur-Lucknow-Varanasi-Patna-Dhanbad-Kolkata.

The existence of very good conventional rail lines reduces the incremental economic cost for high speed rail, particularly over shorter distances, although if it is possible to use existing railway lines on final approaches to major cities, the construction costs of high speed rail can be significantly reduced.

Demand and capacity- many countries have built high-speed rail lines as much for reasons of capacity as for reasons of speed (securing incremental passengers-due to increase in passenger population- as also for journey time savings for existing passengers). The benefits of new construction will be highest when this new capability can be fully utilised early on – particularly when relatively high discount rates are used

Population distribution: the distribution of population around city centres relative to more distant suburbs, will affect the potential benefits of high speed rail. Journey times and distance High-speed rail enables journeys over medium distances to be made quickly.

HSR is better at serving markets where demand is located closely around key nodes. High speed rail can serve a higher proportion of potential markets in countries like India, where most of the urban population lives in compactly populated cities.

As discussed above, high speed rail lines can provide very high capacity and the benefits of investment will be more if this capability can be well utilised. It would be very unusual for there to be such great demand for travel between two individual cities that a dedicated high speed line can be justified: the line must also be able to handle passengers to/from other cities, either along or beyond the core route. The case for building of high speed lines is likely to be stronger if population is situated in corridors that can be served by a single line*. 

COMPARISON

Let us compare the various High Speed Rail systems in operation around the world to get some insight into which kind of HSR system India can choose.

	JAPANESE SHINKANSEN E5	CHINA RAILWAYS CRH380A	RUSSIAN SAPSAN	TAIWAN THSR 700T	GERMAN ICE 3	FRENCH TGV DUPLEX	ITALY ETR 500
Maximum speed (Km/h)	320	380	250	300	330	320	300
Speed record (Km/h)	-	486	290	315	368	574.8	362
Levels	1	1	1	1	1	2	1
Passenger capacity	731	494	604	989	460	512	671
Entered service	2011	2010	2009	2007	2000	1995 Jun 21	1992
Weight	-	-	667 t	503 t	409 t	380 t	640 t
Train length	-	666.01 ft. (203 m)	820.75 ft (250 m)	997.37 ft (304 m)	656.16 ft. (200 m)	656.16 ft. (200 m)	1,162.50 ft. (354.33 m)
Manufacturer	Hitachi, Kawasaki Heavy Industries	China South Locomotive & Rolling Stock Corporation Limited	Siemens	Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Rolling Stock Company, Hitachi Rail, Nippon Sharyo	Siemens	ALSTOM (GEC-Alstom)	TREVI SpA
GAUGE	1435 mm	1435 mm	1520 mm	1435 mm	1435 mm	1435 mm	1435 mm
OPERATOR	JR EAST	SHANGHAI RAIL BUREAU	RUSSIAN RAILWAYS	THSRC	DEUTSCHE BAHN	SNCF	TRENITALIA
POWER OUTPUT (Kw)	9,960	-	8,000	10,260	8,000	9,280	8,800
BRAKING	Regenerative	Regenerative electrical continuous pneumatic	-	Regenerative Eddy currents	-	Regenerative pneumatic	-

We can see from the above table that Russia has a 1520 mm gauge whereas all other nations have 1435 mm gauge or Standard gauge. Existing Indian Rail Network is mainly Broad-gauge or Indian Gauge i.e. 1676 mm that is 5 ft 6 in. India is able to carry so many passengers and freight in huge numbers because we have the Broad gauge network. But most of the HSR technology is calibrated to standard Gauge. So here, we have to make a choice between selecting standard gauge technology and developing a broad gauge HSR which will be the first in the world. I think that it is imperative that we choose Broad gauge for our future HSR network as it will give us higher capacity. Moreover we can make it a part of the System of Indian Standards (SIS)-Refer Chapter on System of Indian Standards  and promote broad gauge HSR internationally as well as in the future.

ADVANTAGES OF HSR

ENERGY EFFICIENCY [11]

Travel by rail is more competitive in areas of higher population density or where fuel is expensive, because trains are more fuel-efficient than cars when ridership is high, comparable to other forms of mass transit. In Japan and France, which have extensive high-speed rail networks, a large proportion of electricity comes from nuclear power[12].On the Eurostar, a train which primarily runs off the French electricity network, emissions from travelling by train from London to Paris are 90% lower than by flying [13].

Even using electricity generated from coal or oil, high-speed trains are considerably more fuel-efficient per passenger per kilometer traveled than the usual automobile due to economies of scale in generator technology [14].

High-speed rail can accommodate more passengers at far higher speeds than automobiles. Generally, the longer the journey, the better the time advantage of rail over road if going to the same destination. High speed rail provides considerably reduced travel times between cities. However, high-speed rail can be competitive with cars on shorter distances also,say 0–150 kilometres like in commuting, given road congestion or costly parking fees.

Although air transit moves at higher speeds, its total time to destination can be increased by check-in, baggage handling, security and boarding. These procedures also add cost to air travel[15].Trains are preferred in shorter, mid-range distances since rail stations are typically closer to urban centers than airports [16].

Likewise, air travel needs longer distances to have a speed advantage after accounting for both processing time and travel to the airport.

Electric HSR supports energy independence and is eco-friendly. Electric trains use less energy to transport goods and people on a per unit electricity(kilowatt) basis and can take power from more varied sources of energy including renewables than automobile and aircraft, which are more reliant on imported petroleum.

SAFETY [20]

HSR is much simpler to control due to its predictable course. High-speed rail systems reduce (but do not eliminate) [21] Collisions with automobiles or people, by using non-grade level track and eliminating grade-level crossings.

SPACE UTILISATION AND CONVENIENCE

A typical passenger rail carries 2.83 times as many passengers per hour per metre width as a road. A representative train is the Eurostar, which provides capacity for 12 trains per hour and 800 passengers per train, totalling 9,600 passengers per hour in each direction. By contrast, the Highway Capacity Manual gives a maximum capacity of 2,250 passenger cars per hour per lane, excluding other vehicles. Assuming  average vehicle occupancy of 1.57 people [26].

 A standard twin track railway has a typical capacity 13% greater than a 6-lane highway (3 lanes each way) 27,while requiring only 40% of the land (1.0/3.0 versus 2.5/7.5 hectares per kilometre of direct/indirect land consumption) [28].

The Tokaido Shinkansen line in Japan, has a much greater ratio (with as many as 20,000 passengers per hour per direction). Similarly commuter roads tend to carry fewer than 1.57 persons per vehicle (Washington State Department of Transportation, for instance, uses 1.2 persons per vehicle) during commute times [28].

High-speed trains also have comfort advantages, since train passengers are allowed to move freely about the train at any point in the journey17.The seats are also less subject to weight restrictions than on planes, and as such may have more padding and legroom [18].

Rail travel also requires less weather dependency than air travel. A well designed and operated rail system can only be affected by severe weather conditions, such as heavy snow, heavy fog, and major storm. Flights however, generally face cancellations or delays under less severe conditions.

Technology advances such as continuously welded rail have minimized the vibration found on railways, while air travel remains affected by turbulence when adverse wind conditions arise [19].Trains can also accommodate intermediate stops at lower time and energetic costs than planes.

TECHNOLOGY, GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT BENEFITS.

By building a HSR system, India can develop an indigenous high-speed rail Technology industry. The creation and expansion of HSR can develop India into a leader of high-speed rail building technology. Indian engineers are capable of absorbing imported technologies quickly, localize production processes, and even begin to compete with foreign suppliers in the export market. Plus there will be spin-offs We did it in the defence market with BrahMos Supersonic cruise missiles. It is very well possible to do so in this sector also.

Additionally, shifting passengers to high-speed lines allows conventional railways to carry more freight, which is more profitable for railways[23]. HSR facilitates cross-city economic assimilation and encourages the growth of second-tier cities. The introduction of the high-speed railways was responsible for 59% of the increase in market potential for the secondary cities connected by bullet trains. (Market potential, a concept used by economic geographers, measures "a geographic area's access to markets for inputs and outputs.") A 10% increase in a secondary city's market potential is expected to be associated with a 4.5% increase in its average real estate price [25].

HSR is bound to improve economic productivity and competitiveness over the long term by increasing the transport capacity of railways and linking labour markets [22].

Furthermore, building the HSR is a labour intensive process.it is estimated that an investment of $1 Billion will create around 25,000 direct jobs. Indirect jobs created will be many times that number. In building the HSR we might have to involve millions of people. HSR will become an avenue to employ the surplus and inexpensive labour that India has. This Stimulates the economy in the short term as HSR construction creates jobs and drives up demand for construction industries like consultancy, cement and steel. 

Work on the Beijing–Shanghai PDL mobilized 110,000 workers [24]. This shows that we can tap into our vast labour market and reap the 'Demographic Dividend' that India has been waiting for.

Thus, we have seen that though High Speed Rail system needs heavy investment initially, it turns out well for the economy and the people. The advantages of  building a High Speed Rail system is immense and beneficial to the society. Consequently we should work towards establishing a safe and efficient High Speed Rail system in India.

                                        

                                               - Dr.Kartik Hegadekatti.

Dr.Kartik Hegadekatti is an Indian Civil Service officer presently serving in the Ministry of Railways in India.Views Expressed are Personal. 

REFERENCES

1.  http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/at-what-speed-do-indian-trains-run-305590.Retrieved on 27 Nov 2014.

2.  K. Fender, “High Speed Rail Revolution,” Trains, Vol. 71, 2011, pp. 24-31.

3.  http://file.scirp.org/Html/7-3500118_31854.htm. Retrieved on 28 Nov 2014.

4. D. Carol, M. Leger, W. Zuber and M, Downey, “An Introduction to High Speed Rail—A Multidisciplinary Challenge,” Velocity Network, No. 73, 2011, pp. 1-3. 

5. http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/economic-activity.html#ixzz3KLSOebom. Retrieved on 27 Nov 2014

6. http://nextcity.org/daily/entry/spain-high-speed-train-toronto-commuter-new-york-elevators

7. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/07/10/cost-of-high-speed-rail-in-china-one-third-lower-than-in-other-countries

8. http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report-high-speed-railway-project-talks-put-on-fast-track-1975807. Retrieved on 27 Nov 2014

9. Seen on an equal footing, the Indian rupee has 30% more purchasing power than the Chinese Renminbi Yuan.

10. India has distinct PPP advantages if labour, materials and services are locally sourced.

11. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail#Energy_efficiency

12. The Times, Friday, 6 January 2006, p54. France will run trains free from fossil fuel, says Chirac.

13. "Cut your CO2 emissions by taking the train, by up to 90%...". Seat61. Retrieved 28 August 2010.

14. Prashant Vaze. The Economical Environmentalist. Earthscan. p. 298.

15. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/columnists/nicktrend/8345279/Trains-or-planes-The-great-European-travel-test.html

16. http://www.techthefuture.com/mobility/high-speed-train-vs-airplane/

17. http://www.amtrak.com/the-unique-amtrak-experience-with-many-benefits retrieved on 27 Nov 2014

18. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail#Energy_efficiency

19. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail#cite_note-45

20. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail

21. "Fatal high-speed train kills 12 young pedestrians near beach in Barcelona". Bild.de. Retrieved 28 August 2010.

22. Forsythe, Michael (2009-12-22). "Michael Forsythe "Letter from China: Is China's Economy Speeding Off the Rails?"". China: Nytimes.com. Retrieved 2011-08-17.; Bradsher, Keith (2009-01-22). "Keith Bradsher, "China's Route Forward"". China: Nytimes.com. Retrieved 2011-08-17.

23. Freeman, Will (2010-06-02). "Freeman & Kroeber, "Opinion: China's Fast Track to Development"". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2011-08-17.

24. Bradsher, Keith (2010-02-12). "Keith Bradsher, "China Sees Growth Engine in a Web of Fast Trains"". China; United States: Nytimes.com. Retrieved 2011-08-17.

25. "China’s high-speed-rail network and the development of second-tier cities". JournalistsResource.org, retrieved Feb. 20, 2014.

26. "Fact #257: 3 March 2003 – Vehicle Occupancy by Type of Vehicle". US  Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.

27. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail#cite_note-45

28. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail#cite_note-45

  #. Freeman, Will (2010-06-02). "Freeman & Kroeber, "Opinion: China's Fast Track to Development"".   Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2011-08-17.

* HIGH SPEED RAIL: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Final Report February 2004 Prepared for Commission for Integrated Transport Page 64.